Smartphone Shipments Crash 22% in Q3 2026: The Memory Shortage

255.3 million. That’s how many phones vendors shipped worldwide between July and September, according to IDC, and it makes smartphone shipments in Q3 2026 the steepest fall on record: down 22% on a year earlier. Counterpoint Research, using its own data, put the drop at 20% and the total at its lowest level in 14 years.

People haven’t stopped wanting phones. Memory chips have become so expensive that making them, especially cheap ones, costs far more than it did a year ago. Here’s who was hit, why, and what it means if you’re about to buy a phone, new or used.

The numbers, brand by brand

IDC published its preliminary data on 15 October 2026. The decline has sped up through the year: shipments fell 2.9% in Q1, 7.4% in Q2, then 22% in Q3.

Source: IDC preliminary data, as reported by 9to5Mac and Telecoms.com. Preliminary figures can be revised.

Counterpoint’s report came out on 12 October and blamed the 20% fall on continuing memory constraints. The two firms use different methods and samples, so their numbers rarely match exactly. They do agree on the picture: a sharp contraction caused by supply, not a collapse in what people want to buy. Final figures will come in their full quarterly reports.

Samsung and Apple, half a million phones apart

Samsung kept first place by a whisker. Its 57.8 million phones were about 500,000 units ahead of Apple’s 57.3 million, a difference of 0.2 percentage points in market share, according to 9to5Mac’s summary of the IDC data. Apple’s 4% decline was the smallest in the top five.

Apple also gained in China. IDC said its share of Chinese shipments rose from 15.8% to 17.8%, even though its shipments there fell 4.3%. The iPhone 18 Pro, launched in September, helped; our iPhone 18 Pro vs iPhone 17 Pro comparison looks at what changed.

IDC’s Francisco Jeronimo explained why the top two held up. Vendors with scale, secure supply and a premium mix will keep gaining share, he said. Premium phones carry higher margins, so rising memory costs hurt them less than they hurt budget models.

OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi took the hardest hit

Brands with big budget and mid-range lineups suffered most. OPPO fell about 34.5%, the largest drop in the top five. vivo fell 31.5% and Xiaomi 29.2%. Jeronimo said these brands now have to choose between protecting margins and defending volume as demand weakens.

What that looks like in shops: fewer cheap models, higher launch prices and smaller memory configurations.

Where you live changes how it feels. In the US, UK and Western Europe, where premium phones and carrier financing dominate, buyers are more likely to notice higher monthly payments and fewer free-phone deals than empty shelves. In Nigeria, the Middle East, Brazil, India and the rest of South Asia, where budget and mid-range phones from Chinese brands are popular, it’s more visible: fewer low-cost models, higher prices on familiar phones, and more demand for imported and used devices.

Where the memory went

Every phone needs RAM and storage, and those chips cost much more now. IDC’s Nabila Popal said memory costs have surged approximately 350% since last year. AI data centres are the main reason. Memory makers are prioritising high-margin chips for AI servers, which leaves less for phones and PCs.

Samsung’s own results show the other side. In earnings guidance on 8 October 2026, Samsung Electronics estimated third-quarter operating profit of about 107.4 trillion won on sales of about 195 trillion won. A year earlier, operating profit was 12.17 trillion won. The memory boom squeezing phone makers is a windfall for chipmakers.

There’s one small sign of relief. IDC said memory price rises are slowing: a low double-digit increase quarter on quarter in Q3, against roughly 50–100% in earlier quarters. Prices are still going up, just less steeply. Our explainer on why phone prices are going up in 2026 has the background.

Prices aren’t coming down soon

“The worst is yet to come,” Popal said, adding that the market hasn’t hit bottom. Jeronimo said “volumes will stay under pressure in the coming quarters”. IDC has cut its forecast again and again this year:

• February 2026: a 12.9% decline expected for 2026.
• May 2026: revised to a 13.9% decline.
• August 2026: revised to a 16.7% decline.
• 2027: a further 2.9% decline expected, to just over 1 billion units.
• Recovery: not before 2028 at the earliest.

Telecoms.com also cited a MoneyToday report claiming Samsung cut fourth-quarter smartphone production by 30%. That report is unconfirmed.

If you’re shopping, plan for higher launch prices, fewer budget models and smaller discounts on base storage options. A few practical ways to deal with that:

• If your phone is dying, don’t wait for prices to fall. If IDC is right about no recovery before 2028, that could be a long wait, and today’s phones won’t be cheaper to replace next year.
• Look at last year’s flagship. Previous-generation models were built before the worst of the memory price rises, often get discounted when new ones arrive, and usually have years of updates left.
• Be honest about storage. With memory expensive, the price gap between storage tiers can widen. Check how much you actually use before paying for the next tier up.
• Give new launches a few months. Several flagships this autumn launched well above their predecessors’ prices, and promotions often appear a few months in.

The used market gets busier, and riskier

When new phones get pricier, people hang on to their current ones longer (Jeronimo noted many buyers are doing exactly that) and more shoppers turn to used and refurbished phones. That makes second-hand phones better value. It also draws in more scams and badly described listings.

Used prices may hold up better than in a normal year, especially for recent flagships; our used phone price guide tracks current values. If you’re selling, compare trade-in offers with private-sale prices, because you may get more than you expect. Refurbished phones are worth a look, but grading and warranty vary by seller, which the refurbished vs used vs renewed explainer sorts out.

Imports carry their own risk. A phone from another region may be missing local network bands or a warranty, and a used phone can have a lock or blacklist record you’d never see in the listing photos.

Buying a used phone safely right now

1. Ask for the IMEI (dial *#06#) before you agree to meet.
2. Run a GSMA blacklist check to make sure it isn’t reported lost or stolen.
3. For an iPhone, order an Apple full GSX report. For a Galaxy, a Samsung Info report confirms model, region and warranty.
4. Make sure the seller has signed out of their Apple, Google or Samsung account.
5. Test the battery, screen, cameras and charging in person.

The first all-in-one check is free: