iPhone 18 Pro Sales: Strong or Weak? What Analysts Say (Oct 2026)

Order an iPhone 18 Pro Max on Apple’s Chinese store today and it ships straight away. At the same point last year, the 17 Pro Max had a 25-day wait. That single number, from a Jefferies note on 19 October, is behind a lot of the gloomy headlines about iPhone 18 Pro sales. A week earlier, JP Morgan had said demand was running slightly ahead of the iPhone 17 Pro.

Both can be partly right. What follows is what each report says, why they seem to clash, and what it changes if you’re buying, selling or trading in an iPhone this autumn.

Three reports, three readings

None of these numbers come from Apple, which doesn’t publish unit sales. They’re estimates and channel checks. Read them as signals.

JP Morgan: a little ahead of the 17 Pro

According to AppleInsider and GSMArena, JP Morgan said on 12 October that demand for the iPhone 18 Pro models is higher than for the 17 Pro models last year, but only slightly. AppleInsider adds that the bank raised its Apple share-price target to $360.

Asked about reports that Apple had cut component orders, JP Morgan called it a “fairly typical adjustment” after a big iPhone launch. It tied part of the change to Apple’s split launch. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max went on sale in September, but the standard iPhone 18 isn’t due until early 2027. Some people who didn’t want to wait bought a Pro instead, which lifts Pro numbers. Others are holding out for the cheaper base model.

The same split is why JP Morgan forecasts a 2% drop in iPhone revenue for the period: there’s no new base iPhone on sale this autumn. The bank also noted that the iPhone 17 Pro generation still sells well, even though Apple.com no longer lists it.

Jefferies: lead times at zero, parts orders trimmed

Jefferies was more cautious. In the note reported on 19 October, analyst Edison Lee said:

• Delivery times in China for both Pro models had fallen to zero. A year earlier they were six days for the Pro and 25 days for the Pro Max.
• Japan also had shorter waits than last year. US Pro Max waits were longer.
• Supply-chain checks pointed to component cuts of 10–15% for some parts, 2nm chips included. Some contacts put the net assembly reduction so far at about 2 million phones.
• The Pro Max was reportedly discounted by 9% on the Chinese platform PDD, and resale prices were falling.

Jefferies itself warned that a percentage cut in component orders isn’t the same as that cut in total iPhone shipments.

How both can be true

They’re measuring different things.

• What they compare against. JP Morgan compares with the 17 Pro at the same stage last year. Jefferies looks at how fast demand cooled after launch week.
• Where the data comes from. Delivery-time trackers show how long Apple’s online store makes you wait, which reflects supply as much as demand. Supply-chain checks show how many parts Apple orders, and that can change for reasons that have nothing to do with shoppers, such as building stock early or shifting production to the Duo.
• Region. China, Japan and the US are behaving differently. Jefferies saw US Pro Max waits get longer while China’s fell to zero.
• Timing. The reports are a week apart, and iPhone Duo pre-orders opened in between.

Then there’s the split launch. With no base iPhone 18 until early 2027, this autumn compares a Pro-only line-up with last year’s full range. “iPhone sales” and “Pro sales” can move in opposite directions, which is how JP Morgan can forecast lower iPhone revenue and slightly stronger Pro demand at once.

Put together, the likeliest picture is a solid start, slightly above last year and helped by people who didn’t want to wait for the base model, followed by a faster-than-usual cool-down in China, some trimmed orders, and a Pro Max that now competes with Apple’s own foldable.

China and the global numbers

China is where the reports split furthest. RD Observation’s 1.3 million first-week estimate suggested a strong start. IDC’s third-quarter data showed Apple’s share of the Chinese market rising from 15.8% to 17.8% year on year, even though its shipments there fell 4.3%. Apple held up better than rivals in a shrinking market.

Jefferies’ zero-day lead times describe the weeks after launch instead. Supply caught up with demand quickly, and some sellers started discounting. A strong first week followed by fast cooling fits both.

Worldwide, IDC estimated Apple shipped 57.3 million iPhones in Q3 2026, down 4% year on year. That was the smallest fall among the top five brands, in a market that dropped a record 22%.

Where the iPhone Duo fits

Apple’s first foldable muddies things. iPhone Duo pre-orders opened on 16 October, and Jefferies said delivery estimates had stretched past 90 days. The forecasts differ:

• JP Morgan expects about 8.5 million iPhone Duo units before the end of 2026, in a total foldable market of 20–27 million units this year.
• Jefferies puts Duo shipments at 6–7 million at most in calendar 2026, and says a long backlog doesn’t necessarily mean unexpectedly high volume.

Some high-end buyers who would have bought a Pro Max are probably buying the Duo, which could explain part of the Pro Max softness.

Buying new, waiting, or selling

Buying a new 18 Pro. Short delivery times help you. In most markets you can get one quickly now instead of waiting weeks. Discounting in China doesn’t mean Apple will cut its own prices (US launch prices were $1,199 for the Pro and $1,299 for the Pro Max), but carrier and retailer promotions are more likely while supply is plentiful. If a discounted 17 Pro tempts you, our iPhone 18 Pro vs iPhone 17 Pro comparison sets the two side by side.

Waiting for the base model. If you don’t need Pro features, the standard iPhone 18 is expected in early 2027. Our Apple release dates for 2027 page has the latest timing.

Selling or trading in. Falling 18 Pro Max resale prices in China are a reminder that new phones lose value fastest in their first months. Trading in an older iPhone? Compare current offers now with our iPhone trade-in value guide.

Two things will show which reading was closer. Apple’s quarterly results give total iPhone revenue, though not unit sales. And watch whether Pro Max delivery times lengthen again before the holidays. A sharp rise in promotions before Black Friday would back Jefferies. Steady pricing would back JP Morgan.

Checking a used iPhone 18 Pro

As early buyers move to the Duo and resale prices soften, there will be more used 18 Pro listings. Before you pay:

1. Find the IMEI in Settings › General › About and compare it with the box.
2. Run an Apple full GSX report to confirm model, activation details and carrier.
3. Check how much cover is left with an iPhone warranty check.
4. Run a GSMA blacklist check, and make sure Find My is off before any money changes hands.

Start with a free check: